Strong April Results Driven by Mass Market

The Macau gaming industry exceeded analyst expectations in April. According to Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, gaming revenue reached MOP18.86 billion (US$2.36 billion), which was a 4.1% decline from March but a 1.7% increase over April 2024. Analysts had forecasted a 1.25% year-over-year drop in gross gaming revenue (GGR), but a stronger-than-anticipated Easter holiday helped offset projections.

Despite this positive April surprise, GGR for the first four months of 2025 is up just 0.8% to $9.57 billion. That’s far below JPMorgan’s earlier prediction of 3% year-over-year growth — a target that now seems unlikely.

Shift Away from High Rollers Faces Challenges

The post-COVID Macau gaming landscape has significantly changed. Beijing has cracked down on VIP junket operations, reducing the number of high rollers in the region. During the 2022 relicensing process for the six casino operators — Sands, Galaxy, Wynn, MGM, Melco, and SJM — the government required them to invest over $16 billion in nongaming attractions. This push aimed to transform Macau into a more family-, business-, and sports-friendly destination, but so far, results have been underwhelming.

Macau Economy and Finance Secretary Tai Kin Ip admitted in April: “The development of Macau’s diversified industries has not met expectations.”

To reach pre-pandemic GGR levels of over $36.5 billion in 2019, operators are now targeting mass-market and “premium mass” gamblers — affluent visitors who are not quite high rollers but still bet tens of thousands per trip.

Economic Uncertainty Weighs on Future Growth

Broader global economic concerns have slowed momentum for attracting premium mass players. Although early May’s Labor Day holiday is expected to draw around 140,000 visitors per day from mainland China, and analysts anticipate some improvement in the second half of 2025, the weak performance in the year’s first four months has forced downward revisions of full-year forecasts. JPMorgan, which initially projected 3% GGR growth for 2025, has now revised its outlook to expect a decline compared to 2024.

Geopolitical Risks Remain but Are Limited

Amid trade tensions between the U.S. and China, Fitch Ratings this week noted minimal risk to the Macau gaming licenses held by U.S.-based firms like Sands, Wynn, and MGM. However, the companies remain politically entangled.

Former President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping continue to exchange tariff threats, and speculation persists that China might retaliate by threatening the licenses of American casino operators with heavy Macau exposure. Sands and Wynn are particularly vulnerable, given their close ties to Trump — Steve Wynn is a longtime ally, and Sands’ majority owner Dr. Miriam Adelson is a key political supporter.